What's Wrong with Expert Predictions? (Cato Unbound Book 72011)

What s Wrong with Expert Predictions Cato Unbound Book Experts must love making predictions They keep right on predicting even though by any reasonable standard they re terrible at it Many of them though intelligent and well informed nonetheless have

  • Title: What's Wrong with Expert Predictions? (Cato Unbound Book 72011)
  • Author: Robin Hanson Philip E. Tetlock Dan Gardner Bruce Bueno De Mesquita John Cochrane Jason Kuznicki
  • ISBN: null
  • Page: 431
  • Format: Kindle Edition
  • Experts must love making predictions They keep right on predicting, even though by any reasonable standard, they re terrible at it Many of them, though intelligent and well informed, nonetheless have difficulty even beating a random guess about future events or, if you will, beating the proverbial dart throwing chimp This applies to many realms of human activity, but abExperts must love making predictions They keep right on predicting, even though by any reasonable standard, they re terrible at it Many of them, though intelligent and well informed, nonetheless have difficulty even beating a random guess about future events or, if you will, beating the proverbial dart throwing chimp This applies to many realms of human activity, but above all to politics, and the subject of expert political judgment forms this month s theme at Cato Unbound.Once we grasp that the experts aren t so reliable at predicting the future, a question arises immediately How can we do better Some events will always be unpredictable, of course, but this month s lead authors, Dan Gardner and Philip E Tetlock, suggest a few ways that the experts might still be able to improve.To discuss with them, we ve invited economist and futurologist Robin Hanson of George Mason University, Professor of Finance and Cato Adjunct Scholar John H Cochrane, and political scientist Bruce Bueno de Mesquita Each will offer a commentary on Gardner and Tetlock s essay, followed by a discussion among the panelists lasting through the end of the month.

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      431 Robin Hanson Philip E. Tetlock Dan Gardner Bruce Bueno De Mesquita John Cochrane Jason Kuznicki
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      Posted by:Robin Hanson Philip E. Tetlock Dan Gardner Bruce Bueno De Mesquita John Cochrane Jason Kuznicki
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    2 thoughts on “What's Wrong with Expert Predictions? (Cato Unbound Book 72011)

    1. Robin Hanson Philip E. Tetlock Dan Gardner Bruce Bueno De Mesquita John Cochrane Jason Kuznicki says:

      Robin Hanson Philip E. Tetlock Dan Gardner Bruce Bueno De Mesquita John Cochrane Jason Kuznicki Is a well-known author, some of his books are a fascination for readers like in the What's Wrong with Expert Predictions? (Cato Unbound Book 72011) book, this is one of the most wanted Robin Hanson Philip E. Tetlock Dan Gardner Bruce Bueno De Mesquita John Cochrane Jason Kuznicki author readers around the world.

    2. Un interesante y breve documento donde varios economistas aportan puntos de vista acerca de por qué las predicciones de los expertos fallan tanto, y qué se puede hacer. Me quedo con dos ideas: una es que aquello relacionado con la conducta humana puede tener la impredictibilidad como característica de bien funcionamiento. La otra es que la teoría de juegos parece acabar siendo lo que da mejores resultados.

    3. Отново серията на Cato Institute, отново четирима академици и отново спор с интелектуални есета.Този път темата е експертите по всякакви въпроси, защо те толкова често грешат и никой не им търси сметка и най-вече защо аджеба хората, медиите и най-вече правителствата продължават д [...]

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